With the 2021 NFL regular season now past the halfway point, we'll take a quick look at a notable player from each team who is trending toward some sort of "what if" in the upcoming offseason, be it an expiring contract, an extension worthy resume, a potential trade candidate, or a possible cap/roster casualty.

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Christian Kirk, WR

He hasn’t had that “breakout” moment that suggests he could vault to WR1 status, but Kirk will play an above average depth role wherever he lands. Tim Patrick’s recent deal in Denver ups Kirk’s valuation to $12.5M.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Matt Ryan, QB

The contract says he stays in 2022 ($40.5M of dead cap), but the Falcons’ organization has to be ready to turn the page at the QB position. It stands to reason they’ll acquire his predecessor this offseason, then let Ryan stick out one more season before cutting ties.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Bradley Bozeman, C

Moved from guard to center, Bozeman has gone from a “fill-in” player to a legitimate option for Baltimore’s future. The Ravens have a few mouths to feed this winter, but shoring up the O-Line has to remain priority.

BUFFALO BILLS

Tremaine Edmunds, ILB

The Bills exercised (and fully guaranteed) Edmunds’ $12.7M option for 2022, so there’s no rush in making a long-term decision here. Buffalo is better when Edmunds is on the field (115+ tackles in 3 straight years) but the advanced stats don’t love him as a complete player. The Bills have retained almost all of their pieces in their current window, but Edmunds might be squarely on the bubble come 2023.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Sam Darnold, QB

Things were going well for Darnold until they weren’t (though the timing of an injury to Christian McCaffrey certainly made an impact). With Cam Newton now taking over, it appears the path for Carolina and Darnold will be to find a trade partner this winter for his $18.8M fully guaranteed salary. Spoiler: The Panthers will be eating some of that.

CHICAGO BEARS

Allen Robinson, WR

The QB situation in Chicago has rapidly changed the ability for Robinson to produce at his career level (yards/game less than half). With that said, a second franchise tag for A-Rob comes with a $21.4M price tag. It’s not an inconceivable outcome for 2022.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

C.J. Uzomah, TE

The Bengals need to shore up defensively next offseason, but another extension for Uzomah may also be one of the priorities. The 28-year-old has proven to be a viable redzone option for Joe Burrow, and it shouldn’t take much more than $10M per year to get something done here.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Baker Mayfield, QB

The Browns have already started locking in many of their core pieces (Bitonio, Teller), and more are still forthcoming (Ward), but all of the focus will remain on the QB position this winter. Baker’s $18.8M option for 2022 is fully guaranteed, so there’s no rush in making any decisions, but don’t be surprised if Cleveland is in on veteran trade options, or early round QBs in the 2022 draft.

DALLAS COWBOYS

Amari Cooper, WR

It’s going to be difficult for the Cowboys to part ways with any of their major offensive pieces, as the system appears to be humming along strongly, but it’s a hard cap league, and Dallas currently holds 7 cap figures north of $15M. With Michael Gallup's contract expiring, a restructure here is more likely than a trade for now.

DENVER BRONCOS

Courtland Sutton, WR

Sutton has had chances to show he’s a legit WR1-WR2 in this league, and his current resume suggests he can match his career high of 72 catches, 1,110 yards again in 2021. With Jerry Jeudy under control through 2024, & Tim Patrick recently locked up, will Denver shell out the $15M+ per year it could take to keep Sutton in the fold? And who will be throwing balls to this group in 2022?

UDPATE: Courtland Sutton signed a 4 yrs, $61M extension to stay in Denver

DETROIT LIONS

Jared Goff, QB

The Lions are going backwards (again) and it’s becoming increasingly clear that Goff may not be the solution. Goff is under contract through 2024, including $15.5M fully guaranteed next season. Unless a trade partner bails them out, look for Detroit to convert that to a signing bonus, then release Goff to help spread out the $30.5M of dead cap a little better.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Aaron Rodgers, QB /Davante Adams, WR

One of the best duos in the history of the game each come with a major question mark for 2022. Rodgers of course being rumored to demanding a trade post 2021, and Adams a pending free agent. Rodgers carries a strong $27M cash payout for 2022, so it’s conceivable that he could play out the contract then hit free agency, but will the Packers allow that? A franchise tag is likely looming for Adams, but will they offer him a multi-year deal with the QB position in flux?

HOUSTON TEXANS

Deshaun Watson, QB

The Texans’ believe a better offer could be coming once Watson’s legal situation is finalized. That’s risky business (of course), but regardless, it seems likely that the plan is to acquire as many 2022/2023 picks as possible, and hit the restart button in Houston. Watson’ $35M salary for 2022 is already guaranteed, & his $37M 2023 compensation locks in next March. However, any suspension for personal conduct will likely void the guarantees on these figures.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

T.Y. Hilton, WR

The Colts have invested heavily in locking in their own core, and acquiring their current QB. Keeping a healthy, productive set of weapons on the field now becomes their offseason challenge. Hilton’s been a franchise favorite, but his ability to stay healthy likely means an ending to this marriage. Indy will be in the WR/TE game this offseason.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Brandon Linder, C

The Jags have plenty to address under this new regime, but creating a better pass protection setting for their prized QB1 should be at the top of the list. Linder’s hit the IR 3 out of the past 4 seasons, & his contract carries $10M of savings for 2022 to move on from.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Tyrann Mathieu, S

Mathieu continues to be the Chiefs most versatile defensive player, especially in that he’s often covering up mistakes for the rest of the KC secondary. His contract is set to expire after 2021, and while the former 3rd rounder is pushing 30, he should be in the conversation for a $15M+ deal.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Mike Williams, WR

Williams was the talk of the league through the first quarter of the season, but has since cooled off (along with the rest of his team). LA rose some eyebrows by exercising his $15.6M option for 2021, but that seems to have been the right call for now. If he’s let to hit the open market, he’ll be looking hard at Kenny Golladay’s $18M mark, though that may be wishful thinking.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Von Miller, EDGE

The Rams haven’t been shy to burn draft picks for immediate impact, but Miller will need quite a 2nd half to this season to warrant the 2nd & 3rd round picks given up to bring him on board. With that said, draft compensation like that generally signifies an extension with that team, and it stands to reason that the Rams can pull some value out of that portion of this deal when the timing is right. $10M per year ceiling?

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Cory Littleton, ILB

Littleton’s contract has been restructured 3 times in 12 months, but his $15.7M cap figure for 2022 still places him on a bubble list right now. The Raiders may have no choice but to changeover a few more pieces than they were planning to based on recent events - or they might acquire Russell Wilson and make a huge all-in push. Weird must-follow team.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Mike Gesicki, TE

Xavien Howard (CB) & Tua Tagovailoa (QB) certainly belong in this discussion as well, but Gesicki not being under contract past 2021 while improving in each of his first 3 NFL seasons (and continuing to do so in Year 4), seems slightly baffling. Even if they QB position is changed going forward, this is an investment worth making. He values almost exactly to the 4 yr, $57M deal Dallas Goedert just scored in Philly.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Danielle Hunter, DE

Two restructures, two IR stints, a $26M cap hit in 2022, and a mild trade demand later, it sure seems like the Hunter/Vikings era is coming to a close. There’s an $18M roster bonus due in early March, so look for early movement on this situation.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Dont’a Hightower, ILB

The Patriots are legitimate AFC East contenders once again due in large part to their defense, with Hightower at the center of it. The 31-year-old is on an expiring contract, and the Patriots very rarely pay non-primary position players more than once, but it’ll be tough for New England to move on here without a legitimate replacement in tow. The problem? Off-ball linebackers now top out at $18M per year.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Michael Thomas, WR

After 3 straight seasons with 104, 125, & 149 catches respectively, it’s been a weird few years for Michael Thomas & the Saints. Thomas’ $15M+ salary fully guarantees in early March, & his contract currently holds $22.7M of dead cap for next season, so moving on won’t be pretty. Seems like the Saints will attempt to get a max trade pull, and if they don’t - they’ll hang on for one more season.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Jabril Peppers, S

One of the main pieces in the OBJ trade, Peppers found the IR after Week 6, heading toward free agency. The former #25 overall pick could be a franchise tag candidate this Februrary, and carries a 4 year, $50M valuation toward the offseason.

NEW YORK JETS

Marcus Maye, S

Maye and the Jets were far apart in multi-year extension terms before the season, and he settled for the $10.6M to start the year. An unfortunate achilles injury ended his season in early November, putting his immediate future in a bit of flux. The safety franchise tag should increase heavily thanks to plenty of recent contracts, so it’s likely not feasible to keep Maye for another round. He’s probably destined for the open market next March.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Derek Barnett, DE

The Eagles are better than they should be, and yet still may not have a clue if they have the right QB, or a roster they can afford to keep together for a short-term run. They do however have 3 1st round draft picks, and a decent amount of cap space to work with as needed in 2022 (assuming they stick with a rookie contract QB). Barnett is facing injuries, subpar production, & a roster that’s getting younger around him.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Ben Roethlisberger, QB

Ben isn’t Ben, & the Steelers offense isn’t what it used to be, but the AFC North is currently a dead heat at the time of this piece, and life without Ben in Week 10 wasn’t pretty. As for the 2022 QB? A late first round pick likely won’t help that situation, but an attractive run game/defense could help persuade a few potential trade possibilities to look their way. If not, Roethlisberger will likely offer to return on the cheap.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Russell Wilson, QB

Speaking of potential trade possibilities (see above), Seattle is currently playing themselves into a heck of a lot of change in 2022, with the cherry on the top possibly being a legitimate trade demand from franchise QB Wilson. Russell has 2 years, $51M left on his contract thru 2023, but none of it is guaranteed, and the Seahawks hold $26M of dead cap on his contract next March.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Dee Ford, DE

Ford doesn’t seem like he can physically play the game at a regular clip anymore, though he gave it a legitimate effort in 2021. 2022 is his expiring contract year, & while there’s a fully guaranteed $4.6M bonus, a post June 1st release still seems in the cards. Obviously the future of Jimmy Garoppolo (1 yr, $25M left ) is a point of contention as well.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Rob Gronkowski/Cameron Brate/OJ Howard, TE

The only tight end listed here with a salary in 2022 is Cam Brate who holds 2 yrs, $14.3M left after 2021 ($0 guaranteed). Brady will push to bring Gronk back into the fold, meaning Howard likely hits the open market. He stands to join Evan Engram & David Njoku in this regard.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Harold Landry, EDGE

The Titans’ defense was supposed to be a massive liability in 2021, but Landry and Jeffrey Simmons have been a big reason why this is not the case. Landry’s production over the past year and half falls slightly under Shaq Barrett’s (TB), puting him in position for a deal around $17M per year.

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

Landon Collins, S

Collins was overpaid the second he signed the deal to join Washington back in 2019, but that’s not his fault. A post June 1st release next March frees up $12M of cap space for WFT, and it seems very likely they go that route.

Related Links

• 2022 NFL Team Cap Tracker
• 2022 Salary Cap Rankings
• 2022 Free Agents

Checking on the NBA’s Ten Largest Offseason Signings

This summer NBA teams spent a lot of money to re-sign their own free agents and to get a handful of players to change teams. A month into the 2021-22 season, it’s time to check in on how some of this summer’s big signings are working out.

1. Kawhi Leonard – LA Clippers

   
   4 years, $176 million
   The Clippers knew what they were getting into when they inked Leonard to a four-year, max contract. He was never expected to play early in the year, and Leonard may not end up playing at all this season. He’ll get as long as he needs to recover from his knee injury while the Clippers try to remain safely in playoff position.
   
   The Clippers have been just fine, however. They’ve gotten off to an 8-5 start behind some stellar play by Paul George. If Leonard can return late in this season, it’ll be a bonus for LA’s playoff run. If not, that’s fine. This was always about 2022-23 and beyond for the Clips.

2. John Collins – Atlanta Hawks

   
   5 years, $125 million
   The Hawks season has gotten off to the start they hoped for. Atlanta recently snapped a six-game losing streak, and they sit at 6-9 on the season. You can’t really hold any of that against Collins though.
   
   Collins’ offensive stats are down a tic, but that seems to be more about his role in Atlanta’s offense than his own skills. Collins is shooting 56.7% from the field and 39% from behind the arc. He’s also shown some signs of being an improved passer. This was a good signing at the time, and looks just as good now.

3. Chris Paul – Phoenix Suns

   
   4 years, $120 million
   Phoenix wisely structured the 36-year-old Paul’s deal to protect themselves in case the point guard’s play dropped off. Paul is doing everything to make sure those concerns remain unfounded.
   
   Paul is currently leading the NBA in 10.4 assists and 2.8 steals per game. He’s also scoring 14.2 points per game on good shooting efficiency. Oh, and the Suns are 10-3 and look like a Finals contender again. Money well spent now, and Phoenix is still protected down the line as well.

4. Jarrett Allen – Cleveland Cavaliers

   
   5 years, $100 million
   When the Cavs spent $20 million a year on a center after just drafting Evan Mobley, it looked a little odd. When Cleveland added Lauri Markkanen late in free agency, while still retaining Kevin Love, it looked like insanity to have so many big on the roster.
   
   Now? Allen looks like he’s paid fairly and the big-ball Cavaliers have been an early-season surprise at 9-6. Allen is holding down the backline of the defense, while averaging career-bests nearly across the board. $20 million annually should be fine, especially when the cap goes up in the later years, and it looks fine in the near-term as well.

5. Norman Powell – Portland Trail Blazers

   
   5 years, $90 million
   The Trail Blazers have scuffled to a 6-8 start, but none of that can be put on Powell. It’s more of a factor of Damian Lillard really struggling to get going, and the team adjusting to Chauncey Billups’ new schemes.
   
   Powell has had no issues on offense. His scoring is down just a touch from his final year in Toronto, but he’s shooting the ball better than ever. At 17.1 points per game on 50/45/81 shooting, Powell is well worth the $15.5 million he’s getting this season. The later years, when Powell is past age 30, could look a little rough, but guards have tended to age well in Portland.

6. Duncan Robinson – Miami Heat

   
   5 years, $89.9 million
   Miami’s big offseason has come together nicely. The Heat are off to an 9-5 start. And that’s with Robinson really struggling to get going.
   
   Robinson is taking more shots than ever (10.5 FGAs and 9.2 3PAs per game), but he’s not knocking them down. Robinson is hitting just 33% from behind the arc so far. That’s not going to cut it, but it probably won’t continue either. Robinson’s track record, albeit a short one, says he’ll rediscover his shot eventually. Considering how much of the offense is built around his shooting bending the defense, the Heat hope that will happen sooner rather than later.

7. Kyle Lowry – Miami Heat

   
   3 years, $85 million
   Lowry has energized the Heat with his playmaking and his defense. Lowry’s ability to push the ball has helped a somewhat limited Miami offense steal some easy baskets. Defensively, Lowry has fit in as well as expected, despite those expectations being quite lofty.
   
   It’s shooting and scoring that are worrisome for Lowry, both now and for the future. Lowry has had some trouble creating separation to get his jumper off. Given that he’s 35 years old now, that’s something that might not come back. That would be fine, if Lowry could transition to being more a spot-up shooter. Unfortunately, Lowry is shooting just 30.6% on catch-and-shoot three-pointers. Maybe it’s just a slump. If not, that’s concerning for the $58 million Miami owes Lowry for the two years after this one.

8. DeMar DeRozan – Chicago Bulls

   
   3 years, $81.9 million
   A lot of crow might be getting prepared on behalf of DeRozan and the Bulls. Not only is DeRozan off to a wonderful start, but the Bulls are 10-4 as well.
   
   For some frame of reference: DeRozan is averaging 26.1 points per game, which would be the second-best mark of his career. He’s also grabbing the second-most rebounds per game of his career at 5.6. His assists are down, but that’s a function of Chicago running the offense through multiple players. And it’s still a relatively low volume (2.3 attempts per game), but DeRozan is hitting 36.7% from behind the arc. If the 32-year-old can keep this up, his contract goes from bad/questionable to good/great.

9. Lonzo Ball – Chicago Bulls

   
   4 years, $80 million
   As integral as DeRozan has been to the Bulls good start, Ball’s impact has been less clear. His defense has been fine. His playmaking is ok, if muted a bit due to having to share the load with so many others. It’s everything else that doesn’t look great.
   
   Ball is shooting just 38.4% from the field. That would be offset by his very good 41.6% from behind the arc, if Ball would just limit his shots to three-pointers. Ball is shooting a poor 57.1% at the rim, but 14% of his shots are coming from there. He’s also been pretty bad in the mid-range, despite keep that volume relatively low. At this point, Ball should stick to the perimeter, where he would be a terrific 3&D-plus player, because of his ability to handle and pass the ball.

10. Tim Hardaway Jr. – Dallas Mavericks

    
    4 years, $75 million
    If Hardaway’s play continues this way, the Mavs are going to be glad they made his deal a descending one. Hardaway has struggled to get going thus far, but that hasn’t held Dallas back during their 9-4 start.
    
    Hardaway is averaging 14.2 points per game, which is lowest mark of his Mavericks tenure. His field goal attempts per game have also fallen off, as Dallas prioritizes getting others more looks, especially Kristaps Porzingis. The other factor there is Hardaway is hitting just 40.4% of his shots. He’s also dipped to 37.1% from behind the arc, after a couple of years of flirting with 40% from deep. If Hardaway can’t turn it around, Dallas will look smart for structuring his deal the way they did, but that won’t keep it from being a cap-clogger.

11. Evan Fournier – New York Knicks

    
    4 years, $73 million
    We’re giving you a bonus here, since Kawhi Leonard doesn’t really count. After a hot start, the Knicks have slipped a bit. Some of that might be put on Evan Fournier’s shoulders, as his play has left a lot to be desired on both ends.
    
    The hope with signing Fournier (and Kemba Walker too), is that his offensive play would offset his defensive deficiencies. The other hope was that Fournier’s fall-off in his numbers in Boston could be explained by a lessened role in the offense. Instead, Fournier continues to look like an average offensive player that is being overpaid. To date, he’s knocked down just 41.3% of his shots overall and 36% from behind the arc. His assists are at levels not seen since his early-Orlando days. For New York to be the team they hope to be, they need Fournier to be better than this. Otherwise, it will look really smart that the Knicks have a team option in 2024-25.

The deadline to sign players to Rookie Scale contract extensions has come and gone in the NBA. A record 11 players inked new deals worth over $1 billion in future salary.

In addition, the deadline to extend veteran players with two or more years remaining on their current deals has also passed. To date, 14 veterans have also signed extensions. These range from adding one additional year at $12 million (Josh Richardson) to adding four years at over $215 million (Stephen Curry).

Extensions are the new trend in the NBA. Players are no longer prioritizing free agency as the lone method of getting paid. Many are exercising a form of “pre”-agency and electing to lock in their next deal as an extension. Then, if things aren’t working as hoped for, players no longer hesitate to make a trade request (read: demand) to a destination where they’d rather be.

Despite the two deadlines above having passed, several veteran players remain eligible to sign extensions. Some are unlikely to do so, while others should consider the option over entering a 2022 free agent market with very little available cap space.

Zach LaVine SG, CHI

LaVine was a candidate to do a renegotiation and extension deal, had the Chicago Bulls gone the cap space route last summer. Now, the largest extension LaVine can sign is for four years and $104.8 million. As a free agent, if he gets the maximum deal he’s looking for, LaVine can lock in either four years and $159.9 million (projected 30% of the salary cap) or five years and $207.1 million (projected 30% of the salary cap). With a minimum of $55 million in salary-difference, it’s easy to see why no extension is coming for LaVine.

Bradley Beal, SG, WAS

Beal could decline his player option for 2022-23 and sign a four-year max extension worth $185.5 million today. In the offseason, Beal could add sign either a four-year deal worth $186.6 million or he could tack on a fifth season for a total of $241.6 million. There’s also the constant speculation that Beal may look to the leave the Wizards. Holding off on locking in keeps pressure on Washington to keep improving the roster.

James Harden, SG, BKN

This one is a little complicated. Like Beal, Harden would have to decline his player option for 2022-23 in advance of signing the deal. Because he’s already above the projected max salary for next season, Harden can only bump his first-year salary by 5%. But that’s the same deal Harden can sign in the offseason. The difference? In July, Harden will be able to add a fifth year. Considering that fifth season would be on the books at $61.4 million, he might be better off waiting vs signing an extension now.

Kyrie Irving, PG, BKN

Let’s start with the fact that the Nets have reportedly pulled their max extension offer to Irving off the table. Until Irving is vaccinated and can be a full-time player, he’s out of Brooklyn’s immediate plans. It’s also highly unlikely Irving would sign an extension anyway. Like Harden, the only extra thing Irving can add as a free agent is a fifth season. But at $54.9 million in that fifth year, it’s worth waiting vs extending now. (Like Beal and Harden, Irving would have to declined his 2022-23 player option.)

Patrick Beverley, PG, MIN

Beverley is eligible for as much as $30.8 million over two years. Beverley is limited in how many years he can add, and to a 5% raise, because he was recently traded. That’s probably a tad high, given the Timberwolves current payroll is pressing against the tax. But adding a couple years for slightly less should be in play, if Beverley proves to be the defense-lifting addition Minnesota hopes he is.

Ricky Rubio, PG, CLE

Like Beverley, Rubio is also limited due to a recent trade. He can add two more seasons to his deal and a total of $38.3 million. There’s no chance Rubio gets nearly that amount, however. He’s a backup point guard on a bad team that also happens to be an increasingly expensive team. Look for Rubio to play out this season and to hit free agency this summer.

T.J. Warren, SF, IND

This is a classic case of a slam-dunk extension…if Warren could stay healthy. He’s eligible for four years and $68.2 million. While he may have been dreaming for more coming off his great bubble run, Warren hasn’t played much since then. That would seem to make something in the $15-16 million range seem reasonable as an average annual salary in an extension.

Robert Covington, SF, POR

Covington already benefitted once from the veteran extension rules. He could see that happen again. The 3&D forward is eligible for $69.7 million over four years. That’s a little steep, but an extension that starts around $14 million or so seems fair. The challenge is that the Trail Blazers are already expensive and have another extension-eligible player they may prioritize more than Covington.

Kyle Anderson, SF, MEM

Anderson is eligible for a bigger bump in pay, due to making less than the estimate average salary. Memphis has a bit of a weird cap structure, because only Jaren Jackson Jr. is set to make over $20 million in 2022-23, but the Grizzlies also don’t project to have cap space. That could make locking in Anderson, who is a key rotation player, a possibility. He’s eligible for $55.6 million over four years. That feels fair, given his skillset and importance to Memphis. If Anderson does sign, look for it to be a descending contract to maximize future cap-flexibility for the Grizzlies.

Dorian Finney-Smith, PF, DAL

DFS can get the same deal as Anderson. He’s also a key rotation player for Dallas. The challenge is $14 million or so in average salary feels a little steep for him. Finney-Smith will probably hit free agency, unless he’s willing to take something close to $10 million a year.

Joe Ingles, SF, UTH

Ingles is wrapping up an extension now, but it was a short one. He’s a key reserve/spot-starter for the Jazz. Because he’s older, and subject to the Over-38 rule, Ingles is limited to three years in an extension. Look for Utah to add another year or two at $13-15 million to retain a key rotation player.

Jusuf Nurkic, C, POR

Nurkic has to look at the recent extensions signed the past two years by Steven Adams and Jonas Valanciunas and feel pretty good about getting his. The Trail Blazers can offer him $64.5 million over four years. That’s probably pretty fair value for Nurkic. He’s a really good offensive fit with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Pair him with a defensive-minded backup, and you’ve got 48 minutes of quality center play.

Ivica Zubac, C, LAC

Like Anderson and Finney-Smith, Zubac is eligible for bigger than a 20% bump in salary and a maximum of $55.6 million over four years. The question is if the Clippers want to go there with an increasingly expensive team? The answer easy is that they should. Zubac is the only center on the roster that is proven and doesn’t have injury issues. He’s also shown to be a good fit with the team’s veterans.

All four of these players are eligible for the “Spencer Dinwiddie/Josh Richardson” extension of $55.6 million over four years. When a player is coming off the minimum, as these four are, they can get 120% of the estimated average salary with 8% raises.

Jalen Brunson, PG, DAL

The Mavericks should be signing Brunson to this deal immediately, assuming he’s open to it. Brunson is a Sixth Man of the Year candidate and has proven he can play with Luka Doncic. That’s worth $14 million a season.

Mitchell Robinson, C, NYK

The Knicks would do well to sign Robinson to this sort of deal. He’s shot-blocking machine, a dominant rebounder and an improving offensive player. He’ll probably land $15 million a year as a free agent, because good young centers always get paid. New York should try to avoid that, if possible, by inking an extension before Robinson hits unrestricted free agency.

Nicolas Claxton, C, BKN

You can basically copy-and-paste the above. Claxton has shown less than Robinson on defense, but he’s better on offense right now. The one big difference: Claxton is eligible for restricted free agency this offseason. That puts the Nets in a better spot to retain him, should they not reach terms on an extension.

Luguentz Dort, SG, OKC

This one is a little complicated. The Thunder would have to decline their 2022-23 team option for Dort before signing him to an extension. That might make it worth letting this roll into next season, and one more year at the minimum, before locking up Dort long-term.